Monday, January 31, 2005

Votes In - For Me, Jury's Still Out

MSNBC - MSNBC Front Page

The front page at MSNBC has a rather poignant photograph of an Iraqi man at a polling place, explaining the vote to his baby daughter. In a simplistic way it's a beautiful image, but as I look at it I force myself to remember the myriad of photos that came out of Fallujah on Google that were nowhere near as pleasant.

And so now we will wait and see what happens. As I wrote in response to the Art of The Blog, assuming it isn't a rigged game (a BIG if, there) and the result is a government of American-sponsored quislings, as was the case with Karzai in Afghanistan, this election could be a very good thing. Of course, the real challenge is going to be keeping it afloat in the face of the Iranians. I have always believed, as I wrote in a previous article, that if there was any positive reason for the US to be in Iraq, it is that once the Americans leave, we will almost certainly see an Iranian sponsored Shi'ite theocracy establish itself in Iraq within six months. Even assuming he stays in office, Allawi's fibreglass regime would be less than powerless to stop it...he can't even hold back domestic unrest, let alone an Iranian tidal wave...especially considering that Shi'ites are already the majority in Iraq.

And then of course there are the Kurds...Wildcards always keep things interesting. As a current headline on says, the Kurds are planning on demanding an important post in the new Iraqi government. I find myself thinking however, that demanding by no means is the same as getting. I am predicting that rather tragically, when the dust settles the Shi'ites will announce to the other factions in the country that they are now firmly in charge...and that if said other factions aren't happy with that state of affairs, their two forms of remedy are exile or lead poisoning.

As far as America going to Iran is concerned, my money says that it will happen, but rather disastrously and only very briefly once a) Shrub and his keepers find out what an almighty hornets' nest they've stirred up by going there, and b) domestic America finally wakes up (I'm thinking around 2008 for this one, when Pluto finally goes into Capricorn) and forcibly removes the Palpatine wannabes in the White House (Rove, Cheney et. al.,) even if Shrub himself decides to go quietly.

Interesting times, these. Interesting times.